Islamic Republic officials are already laying the groundwork to blame people for the upcoming third peak/wave. Deputy Health Minister in Health Affairs said, “more than Muharram gatherings, we’re worried about people traveling unnecessarily.” Zanjan Governor admitted the third wave is on the way! They know it’s going to be worse that the last two, considering the overly exhausted healthcare staff, shortage of ICU beds, masks and other medical supplies and concurrent flu, common cold and other respiratory infections! According to our analysis and estimations this could happen around mid to late September.
While Raisi admits and local reports confirm that the situation is not even close to being “under control” and the soaring cases continue in several populous provinces, including Isfahan, Tehran, Alborz, Qom, Fars and Khorasan Razavi, the Ministry of Health Spokesperson repeated herself again, “The number of cases are decreasing across the country.” Sima Sadat Lari announced 2,1190 new cases and 117 deaths in the past 24 hours. In her next sentence, she mentioned 28 provinces in critical condition!
Muharram gatherings keep getting larger and in some parts of the country the Ministry of Health directives are not implemented and there’s no supervisory entity to enforce them. Islamic Propaganda Organization was supposed to be in charge of enforcing “health protocols” for Muharram rituals but apparently, either they can’t cover the whole country or they’re concerned about people’s lives as much as holding the mourning ceremonies!
Head of the Islamic Propaganda Organization in Rey County with population of more than 1million has said 90% of gatherings have been in accordance with protocols. If we assume, with a huge discount, that only 20% of the population attend these gatherings, 20,000 have attended gatherings indoor, crowded and/or without masks! Even with the extremely unreliable stats of the government, average of 10% positivity, that’s 2,000 positive results in one night of these gatherings! That’s 1 county, 1 night, based on regime’s data!
Basic Reproduction Rate (R0) and growth factors remain above 1 indicating the ongoing crisis in the country, while Islamic Republic is getting ready to play the blame game soon! Active cases keep rising mostly because patients are in bad condition when admitted, staying for a long time, overwhelming the hospitals and their staff!
Total: 367,796 (+2,190)
Dead: 21,137 (+117)
Critical: 3,822 (-9)
Admitted: 30,021 (+305)