Hormozgan Governor announced “all ICU beds in Bandar Abbas are full”, and according to Kurdistan officials, Sanandaj is in critical condition. Tehran reports 8% increase in patients going to hospitals and most have been traveling recently, spreading the virus even further. While Governors and health experts in more than 10 provinces have announced “second wave” of the novel coronavirus has reached their residents, the Ministry of Health officials insist on calling it the “first wave”! However, they don’t realize, no matter what you call it, people are suffering and losing their loved ones every day because people at the very top such as Khamenei and Rouhani “don’t want people to panic”! This approach has caused people to become insensitive to the deadly disease and not take it seriously. And…the vicious cycle continues.
Eventually, other officials in provincial level will start repeating the same rhetoric. After Rouhani said, “we should not say “second or third waves” are coming”, today, deputy head of Ahvaz’s Medical University said, “Khuzestan is still in the first wave, and hasn’t passed the peak. Khuzestan didn’t have many cases when the rest of country did, and now because it’s getting hot and people gather in smaller spaces where air conditioners are running, more people are getting infected.” However, this is an epidemic and the country matters as a whole, it’s not an endemic where a small region is considered for epidemiology purposes. Again, it doesn’t matter what level of wave this is, it’s killing people because all restrictions have been lifted. Even Rouhani ordered resuming Friday prayers in “Yellow” zones.
Ali Akbar Haghdoost, head of Epidemiology Committee for National Corona Combating Task Force, said, “The reproduction rate of this virus is very high and it hasn’t changed. But at this moment, its virulence and pathogenicity is low. This doesn’t mean the situation can’t change tomorrow, but for now, it’s less dangerous.” He added, “Fortunately, the 60-80 daily deaths on average are scattered throughout the country. If they were focused in one region, it would have been more worrisome.” This is a contradiction of what Kianoush Jahanpour says every day. For example, yesterday, Jahanpour said, “15 provinces (of the 31) didn’t have any death and 6 have reported only 1.”
Haghdoost continued, “Some of the dead are the ones whom had the disease for many days and were admitted in ICUs, the disease has become chronic. Unfortunately, there are 1000-1500 of them currently in ICUs. Chances of them to die is not small.” Let me translate that for you, 1000-1500 more people are going to die soon but they won’t release the data as it happens! He added, “We are far away from herd immunity, but in many provinces we have 10-15% immunity. We don’t know if some people could have natural immunity to the virus, due to genetics or other factors. But the data suggests some people will not get infected even if they contract the virus.” He said herd immunity could be achieved if 65% of the population are infected. “However, that doesn’t mean the virus would die down but it will continue in a much lower rate,” he mentioned. Assuming what he says is correct, it looks like it doesn’t matter how many people die until “herd immunity” happens, just because the officials are afraid of nationwide protests like the ones in November 2019.
The epidemiologist reiterated that people should be vigilant, follow the health instructions such as social distancing strictly and don’t loosen up. He continued, “Although, in my opinion, this policy won’t stop the spread of the virus completely. The only way to achieve total stoppage of coronavirus is complete lockdown and quarantine which is not possible in our country.” We have already established several times, that the regime has prioritized economical and their grip on power over health and lives of Iranians.
2,364 new cases and 72 deaths have been confirmed in the past 24 hours. Reproduction rate and growth factors stay above 1, indicating the crisis is not even close to be over.
R0: 1.25
Total: 171,789 (+2,364)
Dead: 8,281 (+72)
Healed: 134,349
Critical: 2,596 (+18)
Admitted: 29,159 (-19)
Tests: 1,084,857 (Number of labs wasn’t mentioned in today’s news. Officials may have finally figured out there are discrepancies when they lie.)
Iran International Death Toll: 13,193 (Last updated on April 25)
