While COVID-19 is ravaging through the entire country and all provinces are in critical condition, some parts of the government are worried about “Arbain” and why Iraq should close its borders with Iran and not let any travel to Karbala for mourning 40th day of “Imam Hossein’s” death! Islamic Republic has no plan to contain the novel coronavirus, which has paralyzed the healthcare system and all other markets in Iran.
According to the head of Isfahan Medical University, there is no bed available for COVID-19 patients in public hospitals anymore. The spokesman for the same entity announced “the daily cases of corona” in Isfahan has passed 1,500! That means a city with about 2.6% of Iran’s population, has had more than 45% of cases every day in the past few days. Sima Sadat Lari, Ministry of Health Spokesperson, announced 3,552 cases and 187 deaths in the past 24 hours. That’s part of the reason the Ministry has stopped providing individual city/province stats since March 22, it makes it impossible or that much harder for them to undercount or manipulate their data.
In the meantime, head of ER at Sina Hospital in Tehran sounds the alarm for decreasing average age of deaths and says in the past 7+ months, more than 30,000 cases of under 18 have been recorded, of which about 300 have passed away. Dr Kermanpour also criticized children being “out and about without masks,” saying the effects will be seen in a month! Deputy Health Minister Harirchi had understated these numbers by as much as a third on national TV!
Dr. Minoo Mohraz, an infectious disease specialist and a member of National Task Force, reiterated the worrisome decreasing age of cases and deaths, adding in the next few weeks the daily death toll could reach 600-700! She said, “It’s only natural that with increasing number of active cases, we expect the number of deaths to increase as well.” However, the Ministry has been filtering the true numbers to be released since the beginning of epidemic in Feb 2020. While all officials have been blaming people for not following the health protocols, it may help them to understand the gravity of the crisis if they had the real stats!
Basic Reproduction Rate (R0) and graphs have been the best indicator of ongoing and worsening crisis. Active cases continue to soar, critical cases are on the rise, on the other hand, testing remains in the same low range as always!
Total: 464,596 (+3,552)
Dead: 26,567 (+187)
Critical: 4,137 (+16)
Admitted: 52,765 (+1,469)
Tests: 4,067,861 (4.9% of the population, assuming each test was performed on 1 person)
Cover: Sare Tajalli