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Lies: Resting Between Numbers and Lines

Islamic Republic began its reign of terror in 1979 by cheating on its referendum. It has continued this practice throughout 41 years. It has manifested itself after every elections, or if there’s news of an embezzlement case. Each time with a lie, downplaying or screaming about it, the ultimate goal has been to show “legitimacy” of the regime to the world. The biggest and worst cases have happened since November 2019. Thousands have lost their lives and thousands have been detained in protests but no number was announced by the regime, just another proof that this tyrannical regime doesn’t like numbers!

The novel Coronavirus reached Iran or better say, was brought to the country by Mahan Air. Just like in PS752 scandal where they lied to the world for 3 days, they lied for weeks about how and when the virus which didn’t spread in China could reach Iran! Neglecting the social media era, the contradictory statements on a daily basis and reports from citizens revealed more and more lies of the regime. The aspects of their lies about COVID-19 alone, is so vast an article won’t even cover a little of it. Here, we dig into the statistics they parade in front of cameras every day to show their “amazing” management skills in crisis.


A sample of death certificate with “metabolic disorder” as the cause instead of COVID-19

Daily newspaper Iran reported a suspected case of death by coronavirus on Feb 12 when a 63-year-old female who died in a Tehran hospital. On Feb 19, Ministry of Health announced 2 confirmed deaths. And from there the cover-ups started. The families of the dead could not receive the bodies unless they agreed to have a different cause of death on the death certificates. Healthcare staff were pressured to write a different reason. However, on March 28, even the Ministry of Health had to admit that the first cases were in the country in late January, meaning more than 1 month of hiding the truth!


Every day Kianoush Jahanpur, Ministry of Health Spokesman, presents the numbers and answers a few questions. The numbers, however, don’t represent the reality of the catastrophe. Reports of piled up bodies in Rasht and Qom, officials criticizing fake numbers from offices around the country, including Tehran City Council members, Rasht parliament representatives, Khuzestan Governor, Mashhad’s Mayor, head of Golestan’s University of Medical Sciences, and so on!

Here is what we found about the “official” numbers:

Benford’s Law: The leading digit in many real-life numbers follow a frequency pattern. 1-9 will appear at a specific frequency as the first digit in a dataset. The dataset must have certain criteria to follow the law. This statistical analysis is used to spot fraud. In COVID-19 stats provided by Islamic Republic officials, the deaths must follow Benford’s. But as it’s obvious in the graph below, it doesn’t, indicating of manipulated data. To compare, in a research performed by Oxford University and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas researchers, released on April 27, showed China, US and Italy are among the countries with the best matching records.

The deaths and recovered numbers are set to keep the mortality rate at a specific range at a specific time! It was at around 30% at first few days decreasing to 7.5% by the end of April! The distribution of data is not symmetric. The skewness for deaths from Feb 20 to April 28 is -0.47 and kurtosis is at -1.11 meaning the average number of deaths per day during the first 70 days of the outbreak is less than the median with less outliers! It translates into the deaths remained at the same range 2-158.

On the other hand, the skewness and kurtosis for for recovered patients are 2.07 and 7.87, respectively! Which means there are many outliers in the recovered numbers with a huge difference between mean and median.

The regime started to announce critical cases from April 10 only! And those numbers show the same trend as the deaths, with almost zero skewness of 0.14 (normal distribution) and kurtosis of -1.2 indicating no outliers! No or low number of outliers for a random dataset means the data are manipulated to look like that!

This is just a simple and brief analysis of the data. Add to all these, the evidence released by Iran International and analyzed here. Showing another aspect of falsifying data by the regime.

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